McFreedom

Politics, Guns, Law and Tech

Sunday, October 24, 2004

 

The Badnarik Effect

The New York Times notes a web analysis that Bush's IQ may top Kerry's, this morning. I'm not terribly surprised by this - I've been estimating Bush's IQ at about 120 (the analyst quoted concluded "mid-120s" last election), and figured if Kerry's were impressive, he'd've probably released them, if not in this campaign than in a prior one.

The Times column suddenly veers off into Libertarian territory, however, noting that the Libertarians are running television ads trying to pull Bush voters off. It speculates (as I've seen others speculate) that Badnarik's insane campaign could do for Bush what Nader does for Kerry. I just don't see it. The Libertarians are anti-war. I can't imagine there are a lot of Republicans out there who are so angry about the war that they'd vote for Badnarik but not so angry they aren't already planning on voting for Kerry. I think for most Republicans the "there's no way I can vote for Kerry" point comes from his lack of seriousness on foreign policy - and, if it's possible, the Libertarians are even less serious about foreign policy than the Democrats are. Republicans who believe George W. Bush has gotten the US involved in an unwinnable foreign adventure are already going to vote for Kerry. Republicans (like me) who think Bush is socially overintrusive, and a fiscal disaster but think Iraq was good for our country's long-term security aren't going to vote Libertarian because the Libertarians are even more of a joke on Iraq than Kerry is.

Any Republicans stealable by Badnarik have already been stolen by Kerry.


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