McFreedom

This Reuters story is typical of much of the lazy analysis coming out of the media following the election:

CNN's analysis of the exit data showed that morality was cited as the number one concern by 22 percent of voters -- four-fifths of whom voted for Bush. The second top issue was economy and jobs -- and Kerry captured four-fifths of those votes.

Terrorism was the third top issue, at 19 percent. Iraq was fourth at 15 percent -- and 73 percent of those voters went for Kerry.

The impression given is that terrorism was not a significant factor in Bush's reelection, as it was the "third top issue." But, pulling data from CNN's exit polls, it is clear that the majority of Bush's support came from "Terrorism as top issue" voters. This chart breaks down where each candidate's support comes from:

2004_Exit_Poll_Breakdown.xls

31% of Bush's support came from those saying "Moral Values" were their top issue but 32% of his support came from those for whom "Terrorism" was the top issue. While a greater percentage of the electorate is concerned about "Moral Values" (whatever that means), some of them voted for Kerry. Bush's number one issue was terrorism. Period.

Interesting side note - this is probably a coincidence, but it's amusing, nonetheless. Evan Thomas (the Newsweek editor, not my brother) once famously remarked that he thought the media's support for Kerry was "worth maybe 15 points." A big bunch of Kerry's support - 23% - came from those who said "Iraq" (as opposed to "Terrorism") was their top concern. My hypothesis is that such voters have largely been swayed by media coverage of the "quagmire" in Iraq. Such voters broke 73% for Kerry. If you count the voters that voted for Kerry because of "Terrorism" or "Iraq" - two issues on which the media has been relentlessly anti-Bush - it adds up to 14% of the voters. So, 14% of the voters voted for Kerry largely because of media coverage. Maybe Evan wasn't so wrong about those fifteen points, after all...