Mark my words: none of this matters. The reason it does not matter is that the House Republicans (and Democrats, too, for that matter) have gerrymandered themselves so completely that it's going to be hard for any incumbent (or incumbent party) to lose a seat, much less that many. All analysis of "close races" and the like don't matter. The Republicans are at greater risk of losing the Senate (and everyone agrees that's not much risk) as, thus far, no one has figured out how to gerrymander Senate districts.
April 2002 May 2002 June 2002 July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002 November 2002 December 2002 January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 July 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 July 2005 September 2005 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006