McFreedom

I'm going to go out on a limb, and oppose the conventional wisdom, and reiterate my previous assertion that the Republicans will definitely hold the House, and probably the Senate. I base this prediction not upon what I desire to see; I'm reasonably ambivalent on the topic. Convincing arguments can be made that a Republican win or loss would be the better outcome, and I personally haven't been able to decide between them.

The first factor in this prediction has been the recent unreliability of polls. In 2000 and 2004, polls predicted Democratic victory and were wrong. I see no reason to think that whatever systemic issue was in play in those elections is not going to cause a similar outcome in this one.

The second is my previously mentioned concern about gerrymandering. These districts were very carefully carved up to apportion the votes by party. I don't believe this country has moved so much since 2004.

Frankly, I will be very happy about the health of The Republic if the Republicans lose the House. Simply because I've felt for many years that gerrymandering has been our greatest internal threat, and a Republican loss would refute that concern. But, I'm too cynical to expect that to happen, so I predict that the Republicans will maintain their control.